Product traffis movement

[Dolphin]

I've been tracking the shipping industry as an indicator of financial activity and trade. We could look at the Baltic Dry Index as a proxy for overseas shipping, but not of grain because ag commodities aren't easily broken out in the index.

But rail traffic in the US -- well, that's reported in much more useful forms, it turns out.

Week 5, 2009 rail volumes are declining at a 15% year-over-year rate, which is a little bit better than the week 4 decling rate of 15.5%, which is better that week 52/2008's decline of 23%.

NB - this is not a growth in shipments, it is simply a slowing down in the decline.

Cargo type volumes for week 4/2009

- autos, -49.8%,

- ores/minerals -39.4%

- non-metallic minerals -18.8%

- forest products -21.8%

- coal -7.3%

- ag products -4.6%.

So ag products are declining, but holding up much better than other raw inputs. So far.

Declines by carrier:

CP -6.0%, BNI -10.3%, CNI -13.4%, UNP -21.3%, NSC -16.7%, CSX -18.1%.

[Dolphin]

Just read read about the international shipping decline. England has ran out of anchorage moorings for all the ships that are being idled. They are building more moorings to accommodate the increasing demand. What does that tell us about international trade. In paper manufacturing, container lines are shutting down. Haven't looked at the aircraft freight records. Going to be a lot of inventories sold down before production lines, packaging, and freight movement starts to pick up.