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I'm looking at my terminal and seeing a close of 735.09 on the SP500. It breached the 742.01 level this morning, fought back above that level most of the day, re-tested the support at 742, then collapsed through it with about 50 minutes to the close, tried to pop back above it and fell like a stone into the finish.

I'm no better at guessing the future of markets than anyone else, but the path of least resistance is down from here. We've now taken out the November lows - all of them, the closing and intra-day lows, and all these people who have been telling us "the low is in!," "Best buying opportunity of a generation!" and so on -- they have to get this thing to close up big on Monday, or they're going to reverse course and add to the selling pressure as they do an about-face.

With the economic data coming out... and the about-face on bank nationalization by the Obama administration... I don't see much catalyst out there to make this go higher.

I'll be plenty happy to be proven wrong, of course.

Thursday, February 26, 2009
January 2009 Exports for Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and China are Cliff Diving
Top

So much for decoupling. Year over year January export figures:

Japan - down 46%
Taiwan - down 44%
Korea - down 33%
China - down 18%

Update: Jon Anderson of UBS argues that China’s electronics exports have collapsed in line with the exports of the rest of Asia. However, China’s low-tech exports — shoes, textiles, toys, furniture — have held up well. To put it just a bit differently, he argues that a lot of the press coverage about the fall in China’s low-end exports and the resulting fall in employment has the story wrong. China’s low-end, labor-intensive exports are doing (relatively) well compared to China’s electronics assembly business. He also argues that the fall in investment in Chinese real estate and related materials has added to the woes of other Asian exporters

From Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Posted by CGW at 9:34 PM
Labels: China, Cliff Diving, January 2009 Exports, Japan, Korea, Taiwan
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* ▼ 2009 (21)
o ▼ February (16)
+ Citigroup Shares Collapse
+ January 2009 Exports for Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and...
+ Humor - Deficit Financing (You need to laugh with...
+ From Reuters - Bank Nationalization
+ 2/20/09 - Volcker - I don't remember any time, may...
+ Winter Solitude
+ Bank Nationalization for Citigroup and Bank of Ame...
+ Update - Rep. Kanjorski on the 550 Billion Doll...
+ Ponzi Scheme #2 - Stanford International Bank Cha...
+ 2008 Financial Crisis - 2009 Economic Crisis - R...
+ Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Boyhood Ho...
+ U.S. Congress Was Told in a Private Session by the...
+ Foreclosures Suspended by Citigroup and JP Morgan ...
+ Rep. Kanjorski Chairman of the Financial Services...
+ Electronic Run On Banks - $550 Billion Withdrawn I...
+ U.S. Headline Unemployment (U3) at 7.6 pct, but Re...
o ► January (5)
+ Your Chance to Save the Economy!
+ Citigroup Told to Cancel $50 Million Dollar Jet Or...
+ The TARP Song by Bill Zucker
+ Citigroup Learned Nothing From the CEOs of the Big...
+ Happy New Year - 2009

* ► 2008 (32)
o ► December (4)
+ How Iceland Melted!
+ Humor - Doctors' Opinions of Financial Bail Out Pa...
+ Hedge Funds 101
+ 12/06/08 - You Can't Make This Up!
o ► November (1)
+ Robert Shiller: Things will get worse before they...
o ► October (11)
+ $2.8 Trillion Lost on Toxic Debt
+ Looks Like Everyone Will Be Getting Another Stimul...
+ Fed to Provide Unlimited Liquidity to Central Bank...
+ U.S. Stocks Open Strongly After Gains Overseas
+ Paul Krugman Wins the Nobel Prize in Economics
+ Stock Market Advice from 1929.
+ Kashkari Gives ‘Comprehensive Update’ on Rescue Pl...
+ Lehman CDS Settle Today - Writers to Pony Up $270 ...
+ Fed to Provide AIG With an Additional $37.8 Billio...
+ Fed, European Central Banks Cut Rates 1/2% in a Co...
+ Dow Down Record 800 Points At One Point Today - C...
o ► September (16)
+ Oil Surges a Record $25 a Barrel on $700 Billion ...
+ Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become Bank Ho...
+ Oil at $93.18 a Barral
+ AIG Worlds Largest Insurer on the Ropes
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+ Lehman Bankrupt, Dow drops 504 points for the day
+ Fed and Wall Street in High Stakes Game of Chicken...
+ Inflation or Deflation?
+ Paulson "adamant" no goverment funds for Lehman: s...
+ A New Focus for the Domino Theory
+ The Significance of Lehman Brothers Decline
+ The difference between Business and the Economy
+ The Oracle of Omaha stops insuring bank deposits a...

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Just for the record I said this two years ago... LOL

E_HILLMAN wrote:Just for the record I said this two years ago... LOL

No one every doubted you were a genius E.

Dolphin wrote:

E_HILLMAN wrote:Just for the record I said this two years ago... LOL

No one every doubted you were a genius E.