Hey kids...just did a long write up in Bill's Blog about the severe potential later today and especially tonight and since I don't feel like rewriting 550 words here. Check it out there...http://www.lex18.com/bills-weather-blog/
I have pasted the post below but you really need to go to the link above since it shows the maps etc.
April 19…8:20 am
It’s always fun to play, “Find the Front”…our weather game show where you the reader at home (or wherever you’re accessing us) gets to find the synoptic weather feature…So now let’s play “Find the Front!”
Here’s our map…courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet
Look carefully…most of Kentucky is near 70 already. Wait…you got it…across northern Kentucky we’ve got mid 50’s…and it’s raining there too. Congratulations, you’ve ‘Found the Front’.
That warm front will continue lifting northward and as it does we’ll move firmly into the warm sector which should include a capping inversion (warm air aloft) through most of the day. That inversion will delay the onset of convection (storms)…ok I”m throwing out the big words today…until very late today and more likely this evening.
Now even though we’re south of the warm front…not all warm air is created equally. Another ingredient in our severe weather mix is moisture, best portrayed by dewpoint…and don’t ask why we don’t show it on air other than my boss says so, which is good enough for me…
Notice that from essentially US 127 and east the dews are in the 50’s (even some 4os). It’s hard to make big storms with that amount of moisture. But look west of I-65…the dews are in the mid 60’s…this is buoyant air just looking for a reason to develop into storms. Track the dews today (which you can also do at the Mesonet) and watch them increase eastward enhancing not only the severe risk, but also the heavy rain potential.
Speaking of which…here’s the current Severe Risk from the Storm Prediction Center out in Norman, Ok.
The ‘Moderate’ risk is up to about I-71 from Cinci to Louisville. It wouldn’t be a surprise in later updates if that’s shifted eastward toward us given how the day/evening should unfold.
We’ll see initial supercell development well to our west with a tornado outbreak (at least a dozen as a good starting point) across Missouri, western Kentucky and the southern parts of Illinois and Indiana. This will evolve into a powerful squall line that should roar in here during the evening and overnight. It may turn into one of those cases where the warnings come out for the entire line of storms instead of individual cells…sometimes the warnings do get broad brushed, but as always we’ll try to hone in on the greatest threats as they develop.
So again…most of your day will be fine…in fact having an almost summerlike feel as the dews go into the 60’s. You’ll need to stay Weather Aware late today and this evening (see last night’s post about that). It’s going to be a long night in the weather office. For those interested…check out our Weathercall service. It’s about 10 bucks for the year, but it gives you a phone call when a warning is issued for your address…not necessarily your county…but your address. It’s a nice piece of mind to have when we’re looking at these middle of the night storm possibilities.
Enjoy the warmth of the day…but also stay Weather Aware this evening…
Posted: April 19th, 2011 under Bill's Blog.
